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☆ China’s Economy, Propelled by Its Factories, Grew at Start of Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Keith Bradsher | Alexandra Stevenson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Chinese economy grew strongly in the first three months of the year, new data shows, as China built more factories and exported huge amounts of goods to counter a severe real estate crisis and sluggish spending at home. To stimulate growth, China, the world’s second-largest economy, turned to a familiar tactic: investing heavily in its manufacturing sector, including a binge of new factories that have helped to propel the sale around the world of solar panels, electric cars and other products. But China’s bet on exports has worried many foreign countries and companies, which fear that rising shipments of Chinese goods that are flooding economies elsewhere may undermine their own manufacturing industries and lead to layoffs. On Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 1.6 percent in the first quarter over the previous three months. When projected out for the entire year, the first-quarter data indicates that China’s economy was growing at an annual rate of about 6.6 percent.

Organizations: China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: China

☆ Americans are savings less these days. Here’s why and what that means
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington CNN —Americans haven’t been stashing money into their savings accounts like they used to, according to government statistics. Put together, this may have resulted in “a structurally lower saving rate,” according to the report. What does the lower saving rate of nowadays say about the US consumer? Households are continuing to spend at these elevated rates and one reason is because of the lower saving rate. You’re just not seeing a reversal back to pre-Covid levels, which isn’t shocking when you look back historically to what has happened to the saving rate.

Persons: haven’t, “, Wells, Bell, Shannon Seery Grein, There’s, they’ve, we’ve, Matt Egan, ” Paul Knopp, Read, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Wells, KPMG, CNN, Gallup, T Bank, US Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Johnson, Bank of America, PNC, The Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust, United Airlines, Federal Reserve, Abbott Laboratories, Discover, Citizens, Cleveland Fed, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, Alaska Air, National Association of Realtors, Fed, US Labor Department, Procter & Gamble, American Express . Chicago Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, United States, Europe, UnitedHealth, Blackstone

☆ Biden’s manufacturing industry is expanding, but that could be bad for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Tom Barkin, “, Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock

☆ A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Hanna Ziady | Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. From clothes to carsChina’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. “What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat. “But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ” Jens Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Huang Jingwen, ” Eskelund, Brad W, ” Markus W, Voigt, China’s BYD, Warren Buffett, Setser, Li Qiang, “, ”, Joe Biden, Jennifer McKeown, Shawn Deng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, European Union, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Zero, of, People, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Council, Foreign Relations, World Trade Organization, Aream Group, Tesla, Getty, China Development Forum, Xinhua, Agency, ., EV, European Commission, WTO, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, Xinhua, China's Shandong, . Washington, Brussels

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

☆ Americans have racked up a trillion dollars in credit card debt. That’s actually okay
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.

Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA

☆ A soft landing is now likely. But Americans will still deal with unaffordable housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ Red Sea crisis: Why escalating violence in the Middle East isn’t pushing up gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The prices of a barrel of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, have barely moved. Now, however, analysts say economic factors — weaker demand in countries such as China and Germany, ample oil and gas supply — are superseding concerns about violence in the Middle East. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesGlobal oil demand growth is expected to almost halve this year, the International Energy Agency said in a report Thursday. At the same time, global oil supply is forecast to hit an all-time high, driven by record output from countries including the United States and Canada, the IEA said. Nan said relatively modest demand was also helping to prevent spikes in gas prices.

Persons: Brent, “, Homayoun, “ It’s, ”, Hope, Al Drago, That’s, Falakshahi, Xi Nan, Kpler, Wood Mackenzie, Nan Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, West Texas Intermediate, AAA, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, Rystad Energy, Gas Infrastructure, LNG “ Locations: Red, Iran, Pakistan, Gaza, Ukraine, China, Germany, South Africa, Washington , DC, United States, Canada, Russia, OPEC, Europe, wean, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Africa, Qatar, United Kingdom

☆ China’s population declines for second straight year as economy stumbles
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Laura He | Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s population shrank for the second year in a row in 2023, marking a deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy. The population fell in 2023 to 1.409 billion, down some 2.08 million people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Wednesday. The NBS confirmed that China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, compared to a government target of around 5%. While this expansion marks a significant pick-up over 2022, when China’s economy grew by just 3%, it is still one of the country’s worst economic performances in over three decades. China’s birth rate also dropped to a new record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949.

Persons: Mao Zedong’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Communist Locations: China, Hong Kong, Communist China, India, Beijing

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Wall Street should worry about retail
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, so a recession is nearly impossible as long as consumer spending is growing. Wednesday’s report is expected to be a good one — economists polled by FactSet expect that a strong holiday shopping season boosted consumer spending by 0.4% in December from the month prior. But new data from the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday has soured the mood on Wall Street. The outlook for consumer spending doesn’t look so bright, either. The trend marked the deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy, report my colleagues Laura He and Simone McCarthy.

Persons: Alicia Wallace, shutdowns, It’s, Brian Moynihan, ”, CNN’s Richard Quest, they’ve, Bob Iger, Samantha Delouya, Walt Disney, Iger’s, Disney, Laura, Simone McCarthy Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, FactSet, New York Federal Reserve, Consumer, Hamas, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Economic, Disney, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist, NBS Locations: New York, Suez, Iranian, Asia, Europe, United States, Drewry, Davos, Switzerland, China, Communist China

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s economy for the October-December quarter grew at a quicker rate, allowing the Chinese government to hit its target of about 5% annual growth for 2023 even though trade data and the economic recovery remain uneven. Official data released Wednesday showed that the Chinese economy grew 5.2% for 2023, surpassing the target of ‘about 5%’ that the government had set. The growth for 2023 is likely helped by 2022’s GDP of just 3% as China’s economy slowed due to COVID-19 and nationwide lockdowns during the pandemic. For the fourth quarter, China’s gross domestic product also grew at 5.2% compared to the same time last year. Fixed-asset investment — spending on factory equipment, construction and other infrastructure projects to drive growth — grew 3% year on year in 2023.

Persons: ”, Li Qiang Organizations: China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party Locations: HONG KONG, China

☆ The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.

Persons: there’s, “, John Maynard Keynes, ”, ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan

☆ China’s Retail Spending Picks Up, as Housing Slump Deepens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Cao Li | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Workers at a logistics center in Hengyang, China, sorting packages for delivery after the Singles Day shopping festival. Photo: str/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesHONG KONG—China’s economy showed modest signs of improvement in October as consumer spending picked up, but the country’s prolonged property slump worsened. Retail sales rose 7.6% compared with the same period last year, when stringent Covid lockdowns kept a tight lid on spending activities, according to data released Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. October’s sales accelerated from September’s 5.5% year-over-year growth and topped the 7% expected by economists.

Persons: lockdowns Organizations: Agence France, Getty, HONG, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, September’s Locations: Hengyang, China, HONG KONG

☆ You can thank China and record US oil output for lower gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But the cost of crude oil has been largely declining since the middle of October. The average for a gallon of gas in the United States, meanwhile, dropped to $3.37, according to AAA. This “steady, if slow” decline in gas prices, said an AAA spokesperson, may soon gain speed if oil prices continue their descent. They’re more concerned with economic weakness in China and an increase in oil production in the United States. In the first week of November, US crude oil production reached a new record of 13.2 million barrels per day.

Persons: ” David Kelly, ”, ” David Morrison, refiners, ” Craig Erlam, Brent, Chris Isidore, “, Ted Decker, Refinitiv, Read, Homebuyers Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Trade, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, . West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, Revenue, National Association of Realtors, Census Locations: New York, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, China, Iran, America, United

☆ The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.

Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, “, ” Luke Tilley, ”, Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, ”, New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida

☆ Stocks week ahead: Here’s how America’s economy could begin to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The job market or spending? The spending argument: But there have been instances in which spending weakened before the job market. “I think it starts with the perception of the labor market,” Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, told CNN. The ticket-industry giant said it has sold a record 140 million tickets so far this year, up 17% year-over-year and has already surpassed the 121 million tickets sold in all of 2022. In the third quarter, Ticketmaster sales surged 57% to $833 million and 90 million fee-bearing tickets were sold in the period.

Persons: can’t, ” Shannon Seery, “ It’s, ” Seery, Luke Tilley, ” Tilley, Jerome Powell, ” Drew Matus, ”, Taylor Swift, Parija Kavilanz, Swifties, Taylor, Michael Rapino, Beyoncé, Harry Styles, Bunny, Jonas Brothers, Bruce Springsteen, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ralph Lauren, Steve Madden, Phillip Jefferson, Raphael Bostic, Tom Barkin, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, CNN, Employers, Investment Advisors, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNN Wednesday, Federal, MetLife Investment Management, Ticketmaster, Ryanair, Goodyear, Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, Uber, Occidental Petroleum, KKR, The Carlyle Group, US Commerce Department, Biogen, Warner Bros, Teva Pharma, The New York Times Company, Armour, SeaWorld, MGM Resorts, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Sony Group, Astrazeneca, Tapestry, News Corp, US Labor Department, Soho House, National Statistics, European Central Bank, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Wells, Wilmington, Lyft, Brookfield, Soho

☆ China PMI: Factory activity unexpectedly contracts in October as demand drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s massive manufacturing sector has contracted once again amid weak demand, fueling calls for stronger policy support to boost growth. Fewer working days in October due to the Golden Week holiday, which spanned September 29 to October 6, affected the manufacturing PMI, according to the NBS. “The unexpected decline of manufacturing PMI shows the recovery in China is a bumpy road as domestic demand is still quite weak,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist for Pinpoint Asset Management. The NBS survey showed that new factory orders declined in October from the previous month, pointing to a drop in demand. Overall, “the weak PMI reinforces the case for stronger fiscal policy support,” Zhang said.

Persons: ”, Zhiwei Zhang, ” Zhang, Xi Jinping, “, Zhaopeng Xing Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Nomura, Authorities, ANZ Research, Bank of Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, Liuzhou, Bank of China

☆ How the Fed is using its multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Washington, DC CNN —The Fed’s fight against inflation is about to enter a new phase, but the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will continue to play a key role. The Fed also manages a multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet that accounts for trillions in government securities and lists how much currency is in circulation. For over a year now, the Fed has been steadily shrinking its balance sheet to help cool the economy. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently at around $7.9 trillion, down from its peak of $9 trillion in early 2022 right before the runoff. They also see alternative scenarios for the end of the balance sheet runoff if there isn’t a recession.

Persons: that’s, Lael Brainard, What’s, Wells, Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon, Krystal Hur, Dimon —, Mr, Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, what’s, Estee Lauder, Kraft Heinz, Yum, Bausch, Eli Lilly, Molson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Congress, Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, CNN, HSBC, McDonald’s, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Marathon Petroleum, Sirius XM, Anheuser, Busch, BP, Chesapeake Energy, US Labor Department, Global, Board, CVS, GSK, Humana, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, Brands, Garmin, Cruise Line Holdings, Qualcomm, Airbnb, PayPal, MetLife, Aflac, AIG, Allstate, Prudential, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Duke Energy, Shopify, Ferrari, Marriott International, Moderna, Fox, Molson Coors, Hyatt, Apple, Motorola, Bank of England, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Restaurant Brands Locations: Washington, Treasuries, China’s, Mondelez, DoorDash, Avis, Shell, Cigna

☆ China’s Economy Gets a Boost From Beijing, but Housing Woes Persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

China’s economy grew more than expected over the summer, though the real estate market continued to weaken, as the government and the banks it controls poured money into infrastructure and new factories. Data released on Wednesday showed that economic output increased from July through September compared with the prior three months. Over the past year and a half, China’s economy, the world’s second largest, has struggled. In the third quarter — from July through September — the gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent when compared with the three previous months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. For the second quarter, however, economic growth was revised down to 0.5 percent.

Organizations: Housing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics

☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ Defeating inflation without high unemployment is still unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, ”, “, Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington

☆ China’s Slumping Economy: What the Latest Numbers Are Signaling
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

China’s trains, planes, stores and beaches were a little fuller last month than a year ago, and the pace of activity picked up at factories, particularly those making mobile phones and semiconductors. A batch of numbers released on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a modest improvement in the country’s overall retail sales and industrial production during August. A series of small steps taken by the government over the summer, including two rounds of interest rate cuts, seems to be yielding a slightly better-than-expected improvement in the country’s economy. “The national economy has accelerated its recovery, production and supply have increased steadily, market demand has gradually improved,” Fu Linghui, China’s director of national economic statistics, said at a news conference. “Some may be of the view that China’s economy has already bottomed out, but we remain cautious,” said a research note from Nomura, a Japanese bank.

Persons: ” Fu Linghui, ”, Nomura Organizations: China’s National Bureau, Statistics

☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

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